GLP-1 weight loss projection
Month-by-month projection of where your weight lands on semaglutide, tirzepatide or liraglutide, built from the published trial curves.
Pick "typical" if you are just starting out. Trial averages hide a wide spread, so this is a range, not a promise.
Month by month
| Month | Projected weight | Total lost | % of body weight |
|---|
Where these numbers come from
The curve is fitted to the average total body weight reduction reported in the major randomised trials, then scaled to your starting weight:
- Tirzepatide: about 20.9% average reduction at 72 weeks on 15 mg in SURMOUNT-1.
- Semaglutide: about 14.9% average reduction at 68 weeks on 2.4 mg in STEP 1.
- Liraglutide: about 8% average reduction at 56 weeks on 3.0 mg in SCALE.
Loss is front-loaded and flattens. The curve reflects that, which is why the first two months look fast and month ten looks nearly flat. That flattening is expected, not a sign something broke.
What this projection cannot know
Trial averages are averages. In SURMOUNT-1 some participants lost over 30% of their body weight and some lost under 5% on the same dose. A projection is a planning tool for setting expectations, not a forecast of your individual result.
It also assumes you reach and stay on a maintenance dose, stay on the medication continuously, and do not have a supply gap. Interruptions change the curve more than almost anything else.
And it says nothing about body composition. Losing weight without protecting muscle is a worse outcome at the same number on the scale. Protein intake and resistance training are what separate the two.
Common questions
- Why does my loss slow down after a few months?
- Because a smaller body burns fewer calories, and appetite suppression is largest early. Every trial curve flattens. Slowing is the expected shape, not a plateau to panic about.
- What happens if I stop?
- Trial extensions show substantial regain after discontinuation, because the medication was managing appetite signalling the whole time. See what happens when the shot stops.
- Is a goal weight even the right target?
- For many people a percentage target is more useful. A 10% reduction already delivers most of the metabolic benefit, well before anyone reaches a "goal weight" from a chart.
Want this tracked for you?
GLPme logs every shot, remembers your titration schedule, warns you before you run out of medication, and shows your weight trend against your goal. Core tracking is free.
